These other estimates sometimes rely less on official Chinese population data (which researchers say is inflated because of financial incentives for local governments) and instead use other data, such as the number of mandatory vaccines administered to newborns in China. Some demographers, for example, think the country’s population might have already peaked in 2021 or even earlier. Other groups and academics differ somewhat from the UN in their forecasts of China’s population, but nearly all still predict a decline. The UN’s high variant scenario projects a population of 543 million Americans by then, while in its low scenario, the U.S. population of 337 million in 2021 is expected to grow to 394 million by 2100 in the UN’s medium variant scenario. And in the UN’s “low variant” scenario – where the total fertility rate is projected to be 0.5 births below that of the medium variant scenario – China’s population is projected to fall to as low as 488 million by 2100.įor comparison purposes, the U.S.
Using the UN’s “high variant” scenario – in which the total fertility rate in China is projected to be 0.5 births per woman above that of the medium variant scenario – the country’s population is still projected to fall to 1.153 billion by 2100. The large population decline is projected even though it assumes that China’s total fertility rate will rise from 1.18 children per woman in 2022 to 1.48 in 2100. That’s according to the UN’s “ medium variant,” or middle-of-the-road projection. The UN forecasts that China’s population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100. Related: Global population projected to exceed 8 billion in 2022 half live in just seven countries It’s also roughly equivalent to the population of all the nations in Africa (1.427 billion). This is larger than the entire population of Europe (744 million) and the Americas (1.04 billion). Here are key facts about China’s population and its projected changes in the coming decades, based on data from the UN and other sources:Īlthough China will lose its title as the world’s most populous country, the UN still estimates its population at 1.426 billion people in 2022. Other sources of information for this analysis are available through the links included in the text. The low and high scenarios make different assumptions about fertility: In the high scenario, total fertility is 0.5 births above the total fertility in the medium scenario in the low scenario, it is 0.5 births below the medium scenario. The medium scenario projection is the median of many thousands of simulations. The estimates produced by the UN are based on “all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality and international migration” and do not include the areas separately listed by the UN as “China, Hong Kong SAR” “China, Macau SAR” or “China, Taiwan Province of China.”īecause future levels of fertility and mortality are inherently uncertain, the UN uses probabilistic methods to account for both the past experiences of a given country and the past experience of other countries under similar conditions. That figure represents a population growth of roughly 20 million since 2021, when India’s population was estimated at 1.41 billion people, according to the World Bank.This Pew Research Center analysis is primarily based on the World Population Prospects 2022 report by the United Nations. India’s population was reported to be approximately 1.43 billion when it surpassed China’s population in April, according to CNN. Birth rates in India have decreased recently, so this won’t be the case in 25 years, but at present, India’s young, working population is of a remarkable size. India, however, contributes to global working-age population growth more than any other country, according to CNN. projects China will lose almost half of its population by the year 2100.
According to the United Nations, India surpassed its neighbor China, which was previously the world’s most populous nation, in late April.Ĭhina’s population is in decline and skewing older because of family planning policies launched in the 1970s, as well as increasing income and education, Vox reports. As of May 2023, India is the most populous country in the world.
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